Windschitl, P. D., Rose, J. P., Stalkfleet, M., & Smith, A. R. (in press). Are people excessive or judicious in their egocentrism? A modeling approach to understanding bias and accuracy in people's optimism. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

People are often egocentric when judging their likelihood of success in competitions, leading to overoptimism about winning when circumstances are generally easy for competitors but overpessimism when the circumstances are difficult. Yet, egocentrism might be grounded in a rational tendency to favor highly reliable information (about the self) more so than less reliable information (about others). A general theory of probability, called extended support theory (EST) was used to conceptualize and assess the role of egocentrism and its consequences for the accuracy of people's optimism in three competitions (Studies 1-3, respectively). Also, instructions were manipulated to test whether people who were urged to avoid egocentrism would show improved or worsened accuracy in their likelihood judgments. Egocentrism was found to have a potentially helpful effect on one form of accuracy, but people generally showed too much egocentrism. Debias instructions improved one form of accuracy but had no impact on another. The advantages of using the EST framework for studying optimism and other types of judgments (e.g., comparative ability judgments) are discussed.